Random Thoughts

We think this bull market has further to run.

Our year-ahead target for the S&P 500 is 3450, implying a 7.5% price rise from the expected 2019 close of 3200.

Clues pointing to a good year ahead include a below-average differential between the best and worst-performing S&P 500 sectors, innovation and consumer adoption leading to G5, electric cars, self-driving vehicles being “mainstreamed” quicker into the average consumers lives, the continuation of a Fed easing environment, EPS growth projections that will likely prove to be too conservative and the ongoing lack of attractive income bearing alternatives.

We also see the signing of a Phase One trade accord to materialize, but we then expect no additional agreements until after the election.

We also don’t see the bull market being halted by recession, as we feel we are in a prolonged sustainable global growth cycle.