Revisiting Market Timing - Learning Spotlight

Of course, holding stocks through market downturns may seem straightforward in theory, however, many investors struggle to manage the unease that arises when a correction shakes the markets.


Investors understand that selling at the wrong time can hurt long-term returns. However, sitting on the sidelines in anticipation of a correction can also result in missed opportunities.


As an example, throughout the second half of 2022, nearly every Wall Street economist predicted a recession. Historically, most recessions have been triggered by the Federal Reserve raising rates aggressively to slow the economic growth to combat inflation. After the Fed's aggressive rate hikes—from 0.25%-0.50% in March 2022 to a peak of 5.25%-5.50% in July 2023—a recession seemed like an inevitable outcome. (1)

Fortunately, the recession never materialized. Instead, the S&P 500 posted one of its best two-year runs in 2023 (+26.29%) and 2024 (+25.02%). (2) The past few years highlight the risk of making investment decisions based on "avoidance behavior" about the equity market’s short-term direction.

As we've emphasized numerous times in the past, history shows that missing as-little-as the 10 best days in the equity market over a 20-year period can significantly impact your returns. The chart below illustrates the potential decrease in investment results when these "best days" are missed.


Performance of a $10,000 investment in the S&P 500 over 20 years
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/selling-out-during-the-markets-worst-days-can-hurt-you-research.html

Indeed, each individual's risk tolerance and asset allocation target will vary based on factors such as age, objectives, and many other personal considerations. However, you should not feel pressured to sell simply because you've heard one too many predictions about the stock market's near-term direction.

If constant fearmongering and sell-off predictions start to wear on you, be comforted that the overwhelming majority of market prognosticators get it completely wrong. Those lucky enough to correctly call a downturn once, or twice, are often wrong the other eight or nine times. The long game remains the proven winner.


Investing is never easy.


At WT Wealth Management, we understand that investors often grow tired of hearing industry experts say, "stick with your plan" or "overlook the dip." Every client wishes we had a secret weapon to avoid the selloffs and capture the rallies. However, after decades of watching investor behavior and performance results, we can confidently say that ignoring noise is the best strategy for every investor.

Investing requires patience, discipline, and the ability to look away on bad days to avoid making emotional decisions. Enduring volatility and discomfort are essential for long-term success as an investor.

At WT Wealth Management, we firmly believe that your investment and retirement future should be built on time-tested principles and an asset allocation strategy that aligns with your individual situation—not fear-driven hunches.

*Grammar, spelling and punctuation provided by ChatGPT


SOURCES
  1. Federal Funds Target Rate History
    FedPrimeRate
  2. 2024: It Was (Another) Good Year in the Stock Market
    A Wealth of Common Sense


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