World GDP Update (2015-2025) - Learning Spotlight

Midway through the 2020s, it’s time for a quick look back at how the world’s top 20 economies have performed since 2015. The chart below ranks countries by their forecasted gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 and shows their inflation-adjusted growth since 2015.


Data for this chart is sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
All figures are in 2025 dollars.

Global Data Center Construction Market Revenue
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-worlds-top-20-economies-by-gdp-growth-2015-2025/

In 2015, economists forecasted China overtaking the U.S. as the world’s top economy, however malaise in the real estate sector and then the pandemic has since altered the Chinese economic trajectory. Also noteworthy is India’s impressive growth, which has pushed it into the top five, a spot the U.K. held back in 2015. The IMF projects India will overtake Japan this year and Germany by 2027.

If there had to be a laggard of this group of 15, it would be Brazil. At 8% inflation-adjusted GDP growth, it’s the only country with a single-digit figure. As a commodity exporter, the 2014 commodity price collapse affected the country, sending it into a recession. While recovery began, the pandemic had an impact as well, however trade and investment are back at pre-pandemic levels.

Recently, here at home, the IMF lowered its 2025 U.S. growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.8%, citing rising trade tensions. Tariffs are emerging as a significant headwind for both the U.S. and global economies, contributing to the downward revision in the growth outlook. (1) The 28% growth of the world’s largest economy over the past 10 years is a testament to the strength, resources, and resilience of the U.S. economy. It has maintained its position as the global leader through shifts in political leadership, the global financial crisis, life-altering pandemics, and, most recently, the highest inflation levels in 45 years.

In addition to trade policy pressures, the IMF added that the weakening consumer confidence and consumption indicators also factored in its downward U.S. revision.


While it is not yet calling for a recession in the U.S., the IMF now views recession odds at 40%, up from 25% in October 2024.


For investors, this environment underscores the importance of diversification and a long-term perspective, as geopolitical and trade dynamics could increase short-term market volatility while also creating potential opportunities in sectors less exposed to global trade disruptions.

The experienced team at WT Wealth Management is here to answer any questions you may have. Our objective is to provide a consultative environment to ensure your thoughts, opinions and beliefs are reflected in your portfolio while structuring your account to realize your overall investment goals.

The purpose of these Learning Spotlights is to educate, spark thoughtful discussions, and encourage meaningful dialogue with our clients.

*Grammar, spelling and punctuation provided by ChatGPT


SOURCES
  1. IMF slashes 2025 U.S. growth forecast to 1.8% from 2.7%
    CNBC.com


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